Novelty Betting Guide: Eurovision, Oscars, Elections and More

By Jason Thompson · Updated 12 October 2026

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Novelty betting means betting on events outside sport, such as Eurovision, the Oscars and elections, and the favourite often loses: at Eurovision the bookmakers’ favourite has lost three years running, in 2024, 2025 and 2026.

Quick answer: novelty bets (also called specials) work like any other fixed-odds bet: you back an outcome, such as the Eurovision winner or the next Best Picture, at a price, and the bet settles on the official result under the bookmaker’s own rules. The biggest markets are Eurovision, the Oscars and politics. Odds here are opinions, not statistics, so check the implied probability, read the settlement rules, and only bet where it is legal for you.

Last checked: 12 October 2026, when we checked each fact against at least two independent sources. We don’t tip winners on this page; odds for these events change daily.

What is novelty betting?

Novelty betting covers any market that isn’t a sporting result. Bookmakers often file them under “specials”, “politics” or “TV and entertainment”. The most common types:

The bet types are the same as in sport: mostly win bets, sometimes each-way on big fields such as Eurovision. If you are new to fractional odds, our odds calculator converts them and shows the return on any stake.

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Eurovision betting

Eurovision is the most searched novelty market in our keyword research, ahead of political and Oscars betting. The 2027 contest is in Burgas, Bulgaria, at Arena Burgas: semi-finals on 11 and 13 May and the final on Saturday 15 May 2027. Bulgaria hosts because DARA won the 2026 contest in Vienna with “Bangaranga” (516 points).

Does the Eurovision betting favourite win?

Not as often as you might think. Here is the favourite in the betting just before each final, and how it finished:

Three wins and then three losses in a row. Odds also move a lot through the season: in 2021 Malta led the early betting and finished 7th, while Italy was only 5th in the odds in spring. A clear favourite on the night is a strong signal, but in each of the last three years the winner was not the favourite.

Oscar betting odds

The 99th Academy Awards are on Sunday 14 March 2027 at the Dolby Theatre, with nominations announced on Thursday 21 January 2027 (the Academy says dates can change). The 2026 Best Picture went to “One Battle After Another”.

The most famous Oscars betting upset came in 2017. La La Land was as short as 1/6 for Best Picture at William Hill, Paddy Power and Coral, an implied chance of about 86%, with Moonlight at 5/1 (about 17%). Moonlight won. Awards are decided by Academy members’ votes, so even a heavy favourite can lose.

Political betting

Political betting covers elections, referendums and leadership races. It can be huge: Betfair said Clinton v Trump in 2016 drew more bets than any political event before it. Betting favourites have also been beaten in the biggest votes:

• Brexit, June 2016: Remain was the clear favourite (1/4 at Ladbrokes two days before the vote; reports put its chance at about 76% to 90% as voting went on). Leave won.
• US election, November 2016: UK bookmakers and Betfair gave Hillary Clinton roughly 76% to 83% on the eve of and on election day. Donald Trump won.

Insider knowledge is also a real risk in this market. On 14 April 2025 the Gambling Commission charged 15 people with cheating under the Gambling Act 2005 over bets on the date of the July 2024 UK general election.

In the US, state-licensed sportsbooks have not been allowed to offer election betting. Since October 2024, when a US federal appeals court refused to block it, Kalshi has listed US election contracts; these prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not by state gambling regulators.

Are novelty bets a good bet?

Only for fun, and only with small stakes. Three reasons:

• Prices are opinions. There are no stats or form tables for a song contest or an election, so odds mostly reflect what other punters are betting. Use our no vig calculator to see the real implied chances behind a price.
• Favourites lose. The table above shows three straight Eurovision losses for the favourite, and Brexit and the 2016 US election were both big upsets. A losing run for favourites doesn’t mean the next one will win, either (the gambler’s fallacy).
• Some people know more than you. Results can leak or be known in advance by insiders, which is exactly what the 2024 election-date case was about.

White Christmas betting

The Met Office counts a white Christmas when just one snowflake is observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK. Bookmakers traditionally settled on snow falling on the Met Office building in London, and now also offer named locations around the UK. Read the market’s rules: the location and the observer decide the bet, not whether snow settles on the ground.

How novelty bets are settled

There is no single rule. Each bookmaker sets its own settlement rules, and they can differ a lot. For the 2024 US election, DraftKings settled on the Associated Press call, FanDuel on the AP call plus a concession, and Kalshi at the inauguration. Before you bet, check three things in the market rules: what result counts, when the bet settles, and what happens if a candidate or act withdraws.

Where can you bet on novelty markets?

• UK: only bet with a bookmaker licensed by the Gambling Commission. Our partners 1win and 1xBet are not licensed by the Gambling Commission, so they are not an option for UK players.
• US: entertainment betting is decided state by state. New Jersey was the first state to take Oscars bets, in 2019, followed by Indiana in 2020 and Michigan in 2021; Nevada doesn’t allow it. Most states limit sportsbooks to sporting events, and state-licensed sportsbooks have not been allowed to take election bets.
• Elsewhere: 1win lists politics and entertainment markets, and 1xBet lists politics markets. Check that betting is legal where you live first. See how the two compare in 1win vs 1xBet, or our crypto betting sites guide.

Planning other big-event bets? Our Super Bowl betting guide and Cheltenham betting guide cover the two biggest sporting events of early 2027.

Tips for novelty betting

1. Set a budget first with our gambling budget calculator and keep novelty stakes small.
2. Turn odds into implied probability before you bet; a 1/6 favourite still loses about one time in seven.
3. Read the settlement rules, especially for elections.
4. Compare prices: novelty odds can differ a lot between bookmakers.
5. Ignore “certainties”: Eurovision, the Oscars and elections have all produced big upsets.

Gambling should be entertainment, not a way to make money. If it stops being fun, see our responsible gambling guide for free help.

Novelty betting FAQs

What is novelty betting?

Betting on events outside sport, such as Eurovision, the Oscars, elections, TV shows or a white Christmas. Bookmakers usually list them as specials.

When is Eurovision 2027 and can I bet on it?

The final is on Saturday 15 May 2027 in Burgas, Bulgaria, after semi-finals on 11 and 13 May. Bookmakers in many countries offer winner and top-10 markets; check that betting is legal where you live.

How often does the Eurovision favourite win?

The favourite before the final won in 2021, 2022 and 2023, then lost in 2024 (Croatia), 2025 (Sweden, 4th) and 2026 (Finland, 6th).

Can you bet on the Oscars in the US?

In some states. New Jersey took the first legal Oscars bets in 2019, Indiana followed in 2020 and Michigan in 2021, while Nevada does not allow it. Check your own state’s rules.

Is betting on elections legal?

It depends on where you live. UK bookmakers licensed by the Gambling Commission offer political markets. In the US, state-licensed sportsbooks don’t, but Kalshi has offered CFTC-regulated election contracts since October 2024.

What counts as a white Christmas for betting?

The Met Office definition is one snowflake observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK. Bookmakers settle on a named location, traditionally the Met Office building in London, so read the market rules.

Does 1win offer novelty bets?

Yes, 1win lists politics and entertainment markets alongside sport. It does not accept players from the UK, and it isn’t available in every country.

How we checked this

• Eurovision 2027 dates and host: Wikipedia and Official Charts. 2026 result: Wikipedia and Euronews.
• Eurovision favourites: 2021 Eurovoix, Wiwibloggs; 2022 and 2023 Aussievision, ESCXTRA; 2024 Oddschecker, PinkNews; 2025 ESCXTRA, Rolling Stone; 2026 Eurovoix, Euronews.
• 99th Oscars dates: the Academy and TheWrap. La La Land odds in 2017: Casino.org and SBC News.
• Election-date betting charges: iGaming Business and Gambling Insider. Kalshi ruling: The Block and Cointelegraph.
• Brexit odds: NPR and Malay Mail. 2016 US election odds: CNBC and Asharq Al-Awsat.
• White Christmas: Royal Meteorological Society, Grimsby Telegraph and LBC.
• US rules: election betting Covers and Legal Sports Report; Oscars betting by state Casino.org, BettingUSA and Yahoo. Settlement rules: Covers and Power Play rules.
• 1win markets and UK: Tekedia, Blockonomi, World Poker Deals, UpPromote. 1xBet politics and UK: OLBG, SBC News, Casino.org, Inside World Football.
• Figures last checked: 12 October 2026.

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