Being struck by lightning in a year is about 239 times as likely as one Powerball line hitting the jackpot. 25 odds compared, from royal flushes to holes in one.
Struck by Lightning vs Winning the Lottery: The Odds of Anything Compared
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Quick answer: you are about 240 times as likely to be struck by lightning in a given year (1 in 1,222,000 in the US) as to win the Powerball jackpot with one ticket (1 in 292,201,338). Even if you played one Powerball line in every draw for a whole year, your jackpot chance (1 in 1,873,086) would still be lower than your chance of being struck that year. A hole in one, a royal flush and guessing a four-digit PIN at the first try are all far more likely than either.
Last checked: 24 October 2026, when we re-worked every lottery, poker, dice and roulette figure on this page ourselves (with our lottery odds calculator and our own hand counts) and checked each outside figure, such as lightning and holes in one, against two named sources.
The odds of anything, from most to least likely
This table puts 25 everyday, casino and lottery odds side by side, from the most likely to the least. The last column shows how they compare with one Powerball line hitting the jackpot.
| Event | Odds | Chance | Compared with one Powerball line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Two people in a group of 23 share a birthday | About 1 in 2 | 50.7% | 148 million times as likely |
| Rolling a 7 with two dice | 1 in 6 | 16.7% | 48.7 million times as likely |
| Being dealt blackjack (six decks) | 1 in 21 | 4.75% | 13.9 million times as likely |
| Winning any Powerball prize with one $2 line | 1 in 24.87 | 4.02% | 11.7 million times as likely |
| Rolling snake eyes (double one) | 1 in 36 | 2.78% | 8.1 million times as likely |
| Your number on European roulette | 1 in 37 | 2.70% | 7.9 million times as likely |
| Your number on American roulette | 1 in 38 | 2.63% | 7.7 million times as likely |
| Flipping 10 heads in a row | 1 in 1,024 | 0.098% | 285,353 times as likely |
| The same chosen number twice in a row on European roulette | 1 in 1,369 | 0.073% | 213,441 times as likely |
| Being dealt four of a kind (five cards) | 1 in 4,165 | 0.024% | 70,156 times as likely |
| Guessing a four-digit PIN at the first try | 1 in 10,000 | 0.01% | 29,220 times as likely |
| A hole in one (average amateur, par-3 tee shot) | About 1 in 12,500 | 0.008% | 23,376 times as likely |
| Being struck by lightning in your lifetime (US) | 1 in 15,300 | 0.0065% | 19,098 times as likely |
| A royal flush in Texas Hold’em (staying to the river) | 1 in 30,940 | 0.0032% | 9,444 times as likely |
| A royal flush in video poker (9/6 Jacks or Better) | About 1 in 40,390 | 0.0025% | 7,234 times as likely |
| Being dealt a royal flush (five cards) | 1 in 649,740 | 0.00015% | 450 times as likely |
| Being struck by lightning in a given year (US) | 1 in 1,222,000 | 0.000082% | 239 times as likely |
| Powerball jackpot, one line in every draw for a year | 1 in 1,873,086 | 0.000053% | 156 times as likely |
| All 10 numbers on a 10-spot keno ticket | 1 in 8,911,711 | 0.000011% | 33 times as likely |
| Matching all 5 white balls in Powerball ($1 million prize) | 1 in 11,688,054 | 0.0000086% | 25 times as likely |
| UK Lotto jackpot with one £2 line | 1 in 22,528,738 | 0.0000044% | 13 times as likely |
| EuroMillions jackpot | 1 in 139,838,160 | 0.00000072% | 2.1 times as likely |
| Mega Millions jackpot | 1 in 290,472,336 | 0.00000034% | About the same |
| Powerball jackpot with one line | 1 in 292,201,338 | 0.00000034% | (the benchmark) |
| A perfect March Madness bracket, picking every game at random | 1 in 9.2 quintillion | 0.00000000000000001% | 31.6 billion times less likely |
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Are you more likely to be struck by lightning than win the lottery?
Yes, by a wide margin. The US National Weather Service puts the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year at 1 in 1,222,000, and the Powerball jackpot is 1 in 292,201,338 for each $2 line. So a year of ordinary life carries about 239 times the chance of a lightning strike that one Powerball ticket carries of the jackpot. The Mega Millions jackpot (1 in 290,472,336) gives almost the same answer.
The lightning figure comes from the National Weather Service’s averages for 2009 to 2018: about 27 deaths and an estimated 243 injuries a year, against a US population of 330 million. Our check: 330,000,000 ÷ 270 gives 1 in 1,222,222, which matches. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) agrees that the yearly odds are below one in a million and counts 517 lightning deaths in the US from 2006 to 2025. These are averages across everyone, so they are a rough guide rather than your personal risk.
Is that a fair comparison?
Not quite, and this is where most “more likely than winning the lottery” lists go wrong. The lightning figure is per year; the lottery figure is per ticket. To compare like with like, we worked out what happens if you play a lot:
- One Powerball line in every draw for a year (156 draws, $312): a 1 in 1,873,086 chance of at least one jackpot. Lightning in that same year (1 in 1,222,000) is still about 1.5 times as likely.
- One Powerball line in every draw for 50 years (7,800 draws, $15,600): about 1 in 37,462. Being struck by lightning at some point in your life is 1 in 15,300 by the National Weather Service’s estimate, based on an 80-year lifespan, so it is still about 2.4 times as likely.
In other words, a lifetime of faithful lottery play does not catch up with the lightning odds. You can run your own numbers of lines and draws in our lottery odds calculator.
What is more likely than winning the lottery?
Almost everything on this page. Compared with one Powerball line hitting the jackpot:
- A hole in one on a single par-3 tee shot is about 23,000 times as likely for an average amateur golfer (about 1 in 12,500, by the National Hole in One Association’s figures).
- Guessing someone’s four-digit PIN at the first try is 29,220 times as likely: there are only 10,000 possible PINs, from 0000 to 9999.
- Flipping 10 heads in a row is 285,353 times as likely. Each flip halves the chance, so 2 × 2 × … ten times gives 1 in 1,024.
- Hitting your number twice in a row on a European roulette wheel (1 in 1,369) is 213,441 times as likely. Our roulette calculator shows the odds and house edge of every bet.
- Catching all 10 numbers on a 10-spot keno ticket (1 in 8,911,711) is about 33 times as likely, as our keno odds guide shows for every ticket size.
One thing that is less likely than a lottery jackpot: a perfect March Madness bracket picked at random. With 63 games, each a 50-50 guess, there are 263 possible brackets, or about 9.2 quintillion. NCAA.com uses the same figure.
Compare any two odds
Pick two events from the table to see how many times more likely one is than the other.
Being struck by lightning in a given year (US) is 239 times as likely as the Powerball jackpot with one line.
1 in 1,222,000 against 1 in 292,201,338.
How rare is a royal flush compared with the lottery?
A royal flush is rare, but a lottery jackpot is far rarer. Being dealt one in five-card poker is 1 in 649,740, which makes it 450 times as likely as a Powerball jackpot on one line. So for every Powerball jackpot a single line could expect to win, a poker player would expect about 450 dealt royal flushes.
With seven cards, as in Texas Hold’em if you stay to the river, a royal flush is 1 in 30,940, and in video poker with the best strategy it is about 1 in 40,390, because you can hold cards and draw. Our royal flush odds guide shows how each figure is worked out, and the poker hand rankings list the odds of every other hand.
What do odds of 1 in 292 million look like?
Numbers this big are hard to picture, so here are two ways we worked out to see them:
- Buying every combination: if you bought one Powerball line every second, day and night, it would take about 9 years and 3 months to buy all 292,201,338 combinations, and they would cost $584,402,676 at $2 each.
- A whole country playing: if each of the 330 million people the National Weather Service counts in the US bought one random line for a single draw, you would expect about one of those lines (1.1 on average) to match the jackpot.
Picking “lucky” or often-drawn numbers does not change these odds. Every combination has the same chance in every draw, as our count of the most common Powerball numbers shows.
How do you compare odds fairly?
Three simple rules stop most odds comparisons from misleading you:
- Use the same time frame. Per ticket, per hand or per year? A yearly risk and a per-ticket chance are not the same thing, as the lightning example above shows.
- Use the same format. To turn “1 in X” into a percentage, divide 100 by X: 1 in 37 is 100 ÷ 37 = 2.70%. Betting odds work the same way, and our implied probability calculator converts them for you.
- Don’t add up independent chances. Ten Powerball draws are not “ten times closer” to a win in any way that carries over. Each draw starts from scratch, and a long losing run never makes a win “due”. That mistake is the gambler’s fallacy.
How we checked this
- Lottery odds come from our lottery odds calculator, which we tested on 21 October 2026 against the Powerball prize chart and the California Lottery (Powerball), Mega Millions and the California Lottery (Mega Millions), the National Lottery and Wikipedia (EuroMillions), and lottery.co.uk and Wikipedia (UK Lotto, two draw rounds per line since June 2026). The “every draw for a year” and “50 years” figures are our own maths for 156 draws a year.
- Lightning: the National Weather Service lightning odds table (1 in 1,222,000 a year, 1 in 15,300 in a lifetime, 2009-2018 averages) and the CDC’s lightning data page (yearly odds below one in a million; 517 deaths from 2006 to 2025).
- Hole in one: about 12,500 to 1 for an average amateur on a par 3, from the National Hole in One Association’s data, as reported by Golf Digest Middle East and Club + Resort Business. It is an industry estimate, so we say “about”.
- Poker and keno: our own hand and ticket counts, already checked against Wikipedia’s poker probability tables and the Wizard of Odds on our royal flush page, and against the Wizard of Odds keno tables on our keno page.
- Dice, coins, roulette, PINs, blackjack and birthdays: our own maths. Blackjack with six decks works out at 2 × (24 ÷ 312) × (96 ÷ 311) = 4.75%, in line with World Casino Directory; the shared-birthday figure (50.7% for 23 people) matches Wikipedia’s birthday problem page.
- March Madness: 263 = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets, the same figure given by NCAA.com and Scripps News.
Figures last checked: 24 October 2026. Gambling is for adults (18+) only, and the laws differ from country to country, so check what is legal where you live. If it stops being fun, see our responsible gambling guide.
Lightning vs lottery odds FAQs
What are the odds of getting struck by lightning vs winning the lottery?
In the US, being struck by lightning in a given year is 1 in 1,222,000, while the Powerball jackpot is 1 in 292,201,338 per line. That makes a lightning strike in a year about 239 times as likely as one ticket winning.
Is a hole in one more likely than winning the lottery?
Yes, by far. An average amateur has about a 1 in 12,500 chance of a hole in one on a par-3 tee shot, which is about 23,000 times as likely as a Powerball jackpot on one line.
Is a royal flush rarer than winning the lottery?
No. Being dealt a royal flush in five cards is 1 in 649,740, about 450 times as likely as hitting the Powerball jackpot with one line (1 in 292,201,338).
Does buying more lottery tickets beat the lightning odds?
Not in practice. Even one Powerball line in every draw for 50 years (7,800 draws, $15,600) gives about a 1 in 37,462 chance of a jackpot, while lifetime lightning odds in the US are 1 in 15,300.
Which big lottery has the best jackpot odds?
Of the games on this page, the UK Lotto: 1 in 22,528,738 per £2 line since each line started playing two draw rounds in June 2026. EuroMillions is 1 in 139,838,160, and Powerball and Mega Millions are both about 1 in 290 million.
What are the odds of a perfect March Madness bracket?
1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (about 9.2 quintillion) if you pick every one of the 63 games at random. Picking with real knowledge helps a lot, but NCAA.com’s estimate for a typical fan is still about 1 in 120.2 billion.
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